Ties between the Saharan provinces and the Sultans of Morocco go back centuries, well before Spain’s colonial presence or the more recent creation of the Frente Polisario. From both historical and contemporary perspectives, the Frente Polisario’s assertion to be a legitimate representative of the Moroccan Saharan population is false.

The United Nations has taken a long-standing interest in seeking a peaceful resolution in Moroccan Sahara, and runs an active mission – MINURSO – since April 1991. This was initially focused on monitoring the ceasefire agreed with the Frente Polisario and overseeing the conduct of a referendum on self-determination for the population of Moroccan Sahara which has been recognized by UN officials as inapplicable. In fact, there is no mention of a referendum in UNSC resolutions since 2004.

The Moroccan Autonomy Initiative

Following a longstanding impasse Morocco submitted its initiative for autonomy under Morocco’s sovereignty and national unity. Morocco chose to respond to calls from the international community for progress toward a political solution, to take this step, and to meet the other parties halfway.

Submitted in its final form to the UN Security Council in April 2007, the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative represents an ambitious vision for shared prosperity across the North African region. 15 years later, it remains the only realistic, forward-looking plan on the table.

It is defined by respect for modern democratic society, the rule of law, individual and collective liberties, and socioeconomic development. The plan will see the population of Moroccan Sahara democratically manage their own affairs via legislative, executive, and judicial organs with exclusive competency, with the exception of reserved sovereign domains: namely defence, foreign policy, and the currency. It engrains respect for the unique cultural and social identities of the Moroccan Saharan population.

This is a globally recognised political solution, and in many ways reflects how the United Kingdom has approached devolution over the past 25 years. It goes hand-in-hand with Morocco’s process of advanced regionalisation, underway since 2010, to devolve power from the national government to regional and municipal authorities. This is bringing decision-making centres closer to the population across the nation.

The autonomy plan Morocco has presented is the most realistic and credible basis from which negotiation and compromise can proceed. It is universally acknowledged to be the only option on the table. A direct and up-front referendum, the favoured option defended by the vocal minority who oppose Morocco’s plan, has long been recognised by UN officials as inapplicable and a non- starter.

Morocco understands, and agrees with its international allies, that a solution to the Saharan question can only be reached via peaceful negotiation. Major powers have publicly voiced support for Morocco’s proposal to reach a peaceful and mutually agreeable end to this dispute. They add their recognition to that of the majority of Arab states and a significant number of African countries.

The United States’ December 2020 recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara was an important turning point, in particular its express support for Morocco’s “realistic, credible, and serious” autonomy plan as the unique solution available. Spain’s recent echo of these comments is another major step forward, and one quickly welcomed by the European Union as a positive development. 27 General Consulates representations have opened in Laayoune and Dakhla in recent years.

Morocco’s Commitment: Developing its Southern Provinces

Morocco’s commitment to its Sahara and the Sahrawi people is evidenced by the Kingdom’s huge investment in the region. Under the New Development Model for the Southern Provinces, launched by His Majesty King Mohammed VI in 2015, there was a concerted effort to shift from management to multi-dimensional and sustainable development. This approach is entrenching more stable sources of income and creating long term benefits for the population.

It covers Moroccan Sahara, in particular the region’s flourishing maritime economy, and has already brought about a significant boost to UK-Morocco bilateral trade and Britain’s food security. In the four quarters up to the end of Q3 2021, bilateral trade flows reached £1.8 billion, up £124 million on the same period the previous year.

Progress on this front was documented by the EU Commission in its December 2021 monitoring report assessing the benefits for the population of Moroccan Sahara of the tariff preferences enshrined in the EU-Morocco Association Agreement. The report emphasises that the economy of Morocco’s Southern Provinces is in “rapid transition from a nomadic and shepherding economy to an increasingly sophisticated and competitive agricultural and fishery one”. Some 170,000 of the Moroccan Saharan population of 600,000 are now employed across agriculture, fisheries, and phosphate. The Commission highlights how important Morocco’s development plans and investments have been for this remarkable growth, and also praises the significant participation of women in the workforce.

For every £1 raised in the Moroccan Sahara, Rabat invests around £7 in the region’s socioeconomic and democratic development. Between 2016 and 2021, this amounted to over £6.1 billion of investment – around half of which is targeted at economic sectors, a third on construction and infrastructure, and the remainder on social projects. The success rate of this programme is already close to 80% across more than 700 projects. Highlights include a major new highway, deep seaport, a new university, hospital, solar and wind farms, and seawater desalination plants.

As a result, GDP per capita in Moroccan Sahara is 1.6 times greater than the national average, and household consumption is at least 8% above the average level across Morocco. Pre-COVID economic growth in the Laayoune region was at 7%, and in the Dakhla region 4.5% – again, significantly higher than Morocco’s national average of 2.6%. In a turbulent region, Morocco’s economic stability as a whole can only benefit to the population of Moroccan Sahara.

National elections in September 2021 took place in peace and security, with the presence of over 5,000 official observers including 129 from overseas. Democratic participation in Moroccan Sahara was over 66%: an unequivocal sign of the population’s attachment to and keenness to participate in Moroccan political life.

Perhaps now more than ever since 1975, there is real momentum toward reaching a lasting and agreeable political resolution. Not only have major international players from the USA to the EU swung behind Morocco’s efforts, the recent appointment of Staffan de Mistura, the vastly experienced Italian-Swedish diplomat, as the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy has added renewed impetus. For too long, this stalemate has posed an unnecessary risk to peace and security in the region, as well as for the wider African and European continents. Countries around the world have frequently raised concerns about security in the region, particularly with regard to the rise of Islamic terrorist groups in the Sahel, Maghreb, and West Africa.

Maintaining the current status quo, or worse allowing a failed state to emerge, leaves the Saharan door open to growing and new security risks: from violence and extremism to human trafficking and economic exploitation.

In stark contrast, Morocco’s credible and serious plan for autonomy – as well as decades of financial and societal investment in the provinces, and its role as a regional guarantor of security – has received heavyweight support from a majority of major international powers. It will bring transformative stability to an often-turbulent part of the world, continued peace and growing prosperity to the region.